Sminston With

@sminston_with

I wanted to highlight a study looking at the decaying peaks of the #BTC price residuals from each cycle (this is what is used to build the Decay Channel and also the Oscillator). Here I simply did an exponential decay fit of the max residuals (price / .05 quantile power law regression of the 'support'), only for the first 3 cycles (2011, 2013, 2017), to see how closely we could predict the price during the peak in 2021. The results are pretty striking: it predicted $65,732.72, where the actual peak price was $64,682.47, a price difference of about $1,050. - - - The precise exponential decay of the tops (against the power law support) is worth taking with a big grain of salt (we only have 4 data points now), but this is definitely worth paying attention to as we move through the current cycle. - - - Note Fit of first 3 peaks: R^2 = 0.99598 P-value = 0.0404

PlanC

@TheRealPlanC

The first three data points were already statistically significant with a p-value below 0.05, and the out-of-sample prediction for the fourth data point was accurate to within 1,000. This is impressive all around. Excellent work 👏 (in response to @sminston_with)